Subject Area
Source
Type
Location
Year Published
Summary
Ivanna Khodos (Shkolnitskaya), ‘The Transition Gap After Temporary Protection. A High-Risk Exposure Window for Displaced Vulnerable Ukrainians in Bulgaria’, 2026
Abstract
The confirmed end of the EU Temporary Protection (TP) regime for displaced persons from Ukraine on 4 March 2027 is generating a rapidly emerging transition risk environment in Bulgaria. While discussions at EU level point toward a coordinated exit strategy, including potential pathways to national residence statuses, the situation in Bulgaria reveals a widening structural gap between:
• the formal availability of migration pathways, and
• the actual accessibility of these pathways for displaced populations at scale
This discrepancy constitutes a high-risk exposure window, hereafter defined as the “Transition Gap.” For a significant proportion of displaced Ukrainians — particularly women, families with children, economically active individuals in non-standard or informal employment, and persons in precarious socioeconomic or legal situations — the absence of a structured and accessible transition framework may result in:
• loss of legal continuity of stay and housing stability
• barriers in documentation and registration processes
• erosion or total loss of trust in institutions
• interruption of healthcare access
• disruption of education continuity
• reduced access to justice, employment, and social support systems
These disruptions collectively increase exposure to:
• labour exploitation
• gender-based violence (GBV)
• trafficking in human beings (THB)
• sexual exploitation, including survival sex and coercive dependency
• increased barriers to help-seeking and early identification
• higher risks of criminalisation
• additional pressure on security and justice system
